SoK: Market Microstructure for Decentralized Prediction Markets (DePMs)
Nahid Rahman and Joseph Al-Chami and Jeremy Clark
分散式预测市场(DePM)允许公开参与基于事件的下注,而无需完全依赖集中中介。 我们回顾了可追溯到2011年的 DePM 的历史,其中包括数以百计的提案。 也许令人惊讶的是,像Polymarket这样的现代DePM在物质上偏离了Truthcoin和Augur v1等早期设计。 我们使用我们的审查来呈现由七个阶段组成的模块化工作流程:底层基础设施,市场主题,股票结构和定价,交易,市场解决方案,结算和存档。 对于每个模块,我们列举设计变体,分析围绕去中心化、表现力和操纵阻力的权衡。 我们还为对生态系统感兴趣的研究人员确定了开放性问题。
Decentralized prediction markets (DePMs) allow open participation in event-based wagering without fully relying on centralized intermediaries. We review the history of DePMs which date back to 2011 and includes hundreds of proposals. Perhaps surprising, modern DePMs like Polymarket deviate materially from earlier designs like Truthcoin and Augur v1. We use our review to present a modular workflow comprising seven stages: underlying infrastructure, market topic, share structure and pricing, tradi...