Graph-based Neural Space Weather Forecasting
Daniel Holmberg, Ivan Zaitsev, Markku Alho, Ioanna Bouri, Fanni Franssila, Haewon Jeong, Minna Palmroth, Teemu Roos
准确的空间天气预报对于保护我们日益数字化的基础设施至关重要。 像Vlasiator这样的混合Vlasov模型提供了超出当前操作系统的物理现实主义,但计算成本太高,无法实时使用。 我们引入了一个基于图形的神经模拟器,在Vlasiator数据上训练,以自动递归地预测由上游太阳风驱动的近地空间条件。 我们展示了如何实现快速确定性预测,并使用生成模型,产生集合来捕捉预测的不确定性。 这项工作表明,机器学习提供了一种为现有空间天气预报系统添加不确定性量化能力的方法,并使混合-弗拉索夫模拟可操作。
Accurate space weather forecasting is crucial for protecting our increasingly digital infrastructure. Hybrid-Vlasov models, like Vlasiator, offer physical realism beyond that of current operational systems, but are too computationally expensive for real-time use. We introduce a graph-based neural emulator trained on Vlasiator data to autoregressively predict near-Earth space conditions driven by an upstream solar wind. We show how to achieve both fast deterministic forecasts and, by using a gene...