Leveraging Cellular Automata for Real-Time Wildfire Spread Modeling in California
Connor Weinhouse, Jameson Augustin
野火越来越频繁和具有破坏性,因此,对抗它们的技术必须相应地进行调整。 现代预测模型未能平衡预测准确性和操作可行性,导致持续延迟或误导灭火和公共安全工作。 本研究通过开发和验证基于蜂窝自动机(CA)的预测模型来解决这一差距,该模型结合了关键环境变量,包括植被密度(NDVI),风速和方向以及来自开放获取数据集的地形斜率。 提出的CA框架提供了一种轻量级替代在紧急情况下失败的数据密集型方法。 使用2025年太平洋Palisades Fire的烧伤疤痕混淆矩阵对模型进行评估,召回量为0.860,精度为0.605,在50个参数优化试验后,F1总得分为0.711,每次模拟平均需要1.22秒。 基于CA的模型可以弥合准确性和适用性之间的差距,成功指导公共安全和灭火工作。
Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and devastating, and therefore the technology to combat them must adapt accordingly. Modern predictive models have failed to balance predictive accuracy and operational viability, resulting in consistently delayed or misinformed fire suppression and public safety efforts. The present study addresses this gap by developing and validating a predictive model based on cellular automata (CA) that incorporates key environmental variables, including vegetati...