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使用 Martingale Posteriors 的先前数据拟合网络的不确定性量化

Uncertainty Quantification for Prior-Data Fitted Networks using Martingale Posteriors

Thomas Nagler and David Rügamer

arXiv
2025年5月16日

先前数据拟合网络(PFN)已成为表格数据集预测的有希望的基础模型,无需调整即可在小到中数据大小上实现最先进的性能。 虽然PFNs是由贝叶斯思想驱动的,但它们并没有为预测手段,分位数或类似数量提供任何不确定性量化。 我们提出了一个有原则和有效的抽样程序,以根据Martingale后验,为此类估计构建贝叶斯后验,并证明其趋同。 几个模拟和真实世界的数据示例展示了我们在推理应用中方法的不确定性量化。

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular data sets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian ideas, they do not provide any uncertainty quantification for predictive means, quantiles, or similar quantities. We propose a principled and efficient sampling procedure to construct Bayesian posteriors for such estimates based on Martingale posteriors, and ...