Vague Knowledge: Evidence from Analyst Reports
Kerry Xiao and Amy Zang
现实世界中的人往往对未来回报有模糊的了解,对此量化是不可行的或可取的。 我们认为,语言具有不同的传达模糊信息的能力,在主观期望中起着重要但鲜为人知的角色。 从经验上讲,我们发现在他们的报告中,分析师在语言表达中包括有用的信息,而不是数字预测。 具体而言,分析师报告的文本语调具有预测误差和随后数字预测修订的预测能力,当分析师的语言模糊时,当不确定性更高时,当分析师更忙时,这种关系变得更加牢固。 总的来说,我们的理论和证据表明,一些有用的信息是模糊的,只能通过语言传达。
People in the real world often possess vague knowledge of future payoffs, for which quantification is not feasible or desirable. We argue that language, with differing ability to convey vague information, plays an important but less known-role in subjective expectations. Empirically, we find that in their reports, analysts include useful information in linguistic expressions but not numerical forecasts. Specifically, the textual tone of analyst reports has predictive power for forecast errors an...